Thursday, October 12, 2006

CONPLAN 8022 and the fallacy of use

In today's Washington post William M. Arkin talks about the American war plans for dealing with WMD. Specifically why they may not be used in the North Korean case. The analysis is pretty good although he falls in to something which we could call the "fallacy of use". in other words since the American's have these plans they must use them. This is well stupid. After all its what got the Germans in trouble at the outbreak of world war one. Arkin doesn't understand the war plan process just because planning is being done it actually has nothing to do with future events. After all the Canadian and American military's had war plans to invade the other untill the 1920s'.

It would be like saying that I must use every number in the phone book or I shouldn't have one.

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